calculators.coffee by Timberline Coffee School

Daily Sales Forecast Calculator

Foot traffic times capture rate times average ticket: daily and monthly revenue with peak and slow day swing.

People who walk past or through your location per day. Count manually, use Google Maps Popular Times as a rough guide, or ask your landlord or neighboring businesses.

Percentage of foot traffic who become customers. A street-facing café in a pedestrian area might capture 5–12%; an office building café with a captive audience might see 20–40%.

Average revenue per customer visit, not per drink. Includes multi-item orders. The default ($6.50) reflects a drink-plus-occasional-pastry blend.

How much higher is your busiest day vs. your average? A typical café sees 1.4–2.0x on Saturdays or event days.

How much lower is your slowest day vs. your average? A typical café sees 0.5–0.7x on slow weekdays.

Last updated

How to Use This Calculator

  1. Enter Your Foot Traffic Estimate

    Input the number of people who pass or enter your location each day. Count manually for a few representative days, check Google Maps Popular Times for a directional read, or ask your landlord or real estate broker. For a new location, note that city planning departments sometimes publish pedestrian counts for specific corridors.

  2. Set Your Capture Rate

    Capture rate is the percentage of foot traffic who become paying customers. A street-facing specialty café in a pedestrian area typically captures 5–12%. A captive-audience location such as an office building café can reach 20–40%. The default (8%) is a conservative estimate for a street café without an established customer base.

  3. Enter Your Average Ticket and Read the Results

    Average ticket is mean revenue per customer visit across all items, not just drinks. The $6.50 default reflects a drink-plus-occasional-pastry blend. The calculator shows daily customers, daily revenue, and a 30-day monthly estimate. Turn on the peak and slow day toggle to see the revenue swing for cash flow and staffing planning.

What the Numbers Tell You

The most dangerous thing about a revenue model is how official the numbers look. Punch in some traffic estimates and a capture rate, and suddenly you have a monthly revenue figure with two decimal places. Those decimals are false precision on inputs that can easily be off by 2–3×. This calculator is a thinking tool. The output is only as good as the inputs, and the inputs for a café that does not exist yet are basically guesses.

That said, the model structure is correct. Revenue is foot traffic times conversion times ticket. The useful exercise is to run it in both directions: what capture rate do you need to cover your break-even, and given realistic traffic, what does your revenue ceiling look like? The capture rate input is the honest variable. It is where concept differentiation, location quality, visibility, and marketing all roll up into a single percentage.

For an existing location, use real data: count foot traffic manually for a few representative days or weeks, then back-calculate your actual capture rate from known customer counts. Most operators are surprised by how low it is. A 6–8% capture rate on a busy street is good, not disappointing. For a new location, compare pedestrian counts against your estimated capture rate assumptions before committing to a lease.

The peak and slow day swing matters for cash flow planning, not just average revenue. A café that averages $1,200 per day might do $1,800 on Saturday and $700 on Monday. Those swings affect how much float you need, when to order inventory, and how to schedule staff. The defaults (1.5× peak, 0.6× slow) reflect typical specialty café patterns in urban neighborhoods. Locations near offices often see the opposite distribution: strong weekdays, quiet weekends.

Seasonality sits outside this calculator’s scope. Most US cafés see 15–30% lower revenue in January through February vs. September through November. Factor that into any annual projection you build from these numbers.

Glossary

Foot Traffic:
Number of people who pass or enter a location per day; measured by observation, sensor, or estimates from city planning data.
Capture Rate:
Percentage of passing foot traffic who become paying customers. Specialty café street locations typically see 5–12%; captive-audience locations can reach 20–40%.
Average Ticket:
Mean revenue per customer visit including all items in a single transaction. Not per drink: a customer buying a latte and a pastry contributes the full transaction value.
Daily Revenue:
Total sales in one day, calculated as daily customers times average ticket. Daily customers equals foot traffic times capture rate.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a realistic capture rate for a street-level café?

A street-facing café in a pedestrian area typically captures 5–12% of passing foot traffic. A captive-audience location such as an office building café can reach 20–40%. Mature cafés with established regulars often see 10–15%. If you are pre-opening, start with a conservative 5–8% and adjust once you have real customer counts.

How do I count foot traffic for a location I don't own yet?

Manual counting is the most reliable method: stand outside the location on a representative day and count people passing in both directions over a two-hour window, then extrapolate to a full day. City planning departments and commercial real estate brokers sometimes publish pedestrian count data. Google Maps Popular Times provides a rough directional read but is not precise enough for financial modeling.

Why does the calculator use 30 days for a monthly estimate?

Thirty days is a standard approximation used across coffee industry feasibility models. Most months have 30–31 days, and this approach avoids the complexity of accounting for month length in a rough-order model. For more precise annual projections, multiply daily revenue by 365 instead of 360.

What is average ticket and how do I estimate it?

Average ticket is the mean revenue per customer visit across all items in a single transaction, not just a single drink. A customer who buys a latte and a pastry contributes both to average ticket. The $6.50 default assumes a drink-plus-occasional-food blend typical of a specialty café. If you have POS data from an existing location, use actual ticket averages. For pre-opening estimates, survey local competitors' menus and estimate a blended average.

How should I use the peak and slow day estimates?

Peak and slow day estimates are most useful for cash flow and staffing planning. A café that averages $1,200 per day may do $1,800 on Saturdays and $700 on slow weekdays. Knowing that swing affects how much float you need, when to place inventory orders, and how to structure your staff schedule. The default 1.5x peak and 0.6x slow multipliers reflect typical specialty café patterns in urban locations; office-adjacent cafés often see the opposite distribution with strong weekdays and quiet weekends.

Timberline Coffee School

Trent built this calculator. He also runs Timberline Coffee School, where prospective cafe owners and working baristas take SCA-accredited courses covering espresso, milk technique, cafe operations, and business fundamentals.

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